Monday, October 8, 2012

Analysis on Survivor: Philippines Episode 3

It’s a brand new week and a brand new episode of Survivor Philippines is amongst us. But before this highly anticipated new episode airs, let’s take a moment to analyze some of the big moves and possible shakeups coming soon with key moves taking place in Episode 3.

Jonathan Shares Immunity Idol Information with Jeff

Jonathan was clearly on the outs. Jeff singled him out by talking to the rest of the tribe about getting rid of Jonathan the first chance they got. So when Jonathan found the hidden immunity idol on episode two, he got his temporary salvation. I admit, I made some miscalculation in my power rankings for episode 2. I shouldn’t have placed Jonathan so high in the Kalabaw ranking. You see, he already has a huge target on his back being a returnee in this game. So when his tribe found out that he found the idol, it puts an even bigger target on him because now they would want to flush that idol. We even hear Jeff talking about possibly blindsiding him so that he won’t get to use the idol and that they won’t sacrifice one of their own.

But Jonathan is clearly a master of this game. He approached Jeff Kent for a possible alliance. This leads us to that memorable forefinger handshake, lol. This was a smart move for Jonathan in many ways. Penner chose the path of least resistance by working together with Jeff. Some Survivor fanatics were arguing as to whether this was a good move for Penner, or if he would have been better served had he picked someone else from the lower rungs of the tribal rankings.

But here’s the point: by working with Jeff, Jonathan has immediately eliminated that one person that could possibly rally behind him getting voted out. Jeff is the supposed leader of this tribe and could easily persuade the others to vote with him. By tucking him under his wing, under the supposed sense of security offered by the hidden immunity idol, he has eliminated one threat (possibly the strongest yet). Also, if they do manage to keep this alliance until during the merge, Jonathan has one person who is possibly an even bigger threat than him for individual immunity. We’ve all seen how Jeff competes in these challenges and he’s no lame competitor, whereas going with the other Kalabaw tribe members would mean that he is the obvious bigger target. We have yet to see in the coming episodes, though, how solid this alliance truly is or if it is a half-hearted attempt by Kent to trick Jonathan into thinking that he’s on his side.

Pete & Abi Teaming Up To Shake Things Up in Tandang

I’m pretty sure that most of us were surprised when Abi Maria found the hidden immunity idol and shared this vital information with Pete. As frustrating as it is for RC to try and have an adult conversation with Abi, there is no chance at that point that they can talk clear strategy. And now the tables are turned as both Pete and Abi have gained power on the tribe.

A part of me is saying that Lisa might be loyal to Skupin – after all, he was the only one who tried to show her empathy during the early days of the game wherein she felt emotionally isolated from the tribe. Will she reciprocate the sympathy? We hear her saying “Just tell me what to do”. But I do think that Lisa’s not that cutthroat to make this big of a move. But we’ll see, I could be wrong… there are still a lot of grey areas on this tribe and we can’t clearly draw the lines yet until they head to their first tribal council.

Matsing: Russ or Angie?

Matsing lost their third challenge in a row in Survivor: Philippines. And of the 3 trips to tribal, this was probably the one wherein the decision of which one to vote off has equal amounts of pro’s and con’s.

The reason for voting off Angie is the fact that she has not really put herself in a good position in the tribe, as far as main contributor in challenges is concerned. In the first IC, she might have been put in a spot that she wasn’t comfortable in, but regardless you have to give it your all! In the second and third ICs, we’ve heard her say “can’t” and “don’t” way too many times. This is probably the reason why Matsing can’t pull off a win – she is not willing to give it her hundred percent every single time out. It’s not that the entire responsibility of winning it for her tribe is weighing on her shoulders, but she’s a part of this team and she is just as responsible for losing. On the flip side, Angie is a loyal vote – a crucial point for Malcolm and Denise to consider, if they want to get ahead. But apart from that, I don’t see any other benefits to keeping her in the game.

Russell, on the other hand, is someone who has pointed out time and again that he is giving it his all in every challenge. We saw him stumble while climbing up the ladder in the immunity challenge last episode but he is stronger in challenges compared to Angie. If Malcolm and Denise are interested in getting their first win and evading the fourth consecutive trip to tribal council, then keeping Russell might be a better option for them. As far as loyalty votes are concerned, I don’t think it matters this early in the game because if they do end up losing yet another challenge, they will eventually find themselves back to tribal and voting out Angie anyway. So, why not cut their losses now and try to keep the strongest three that can compete the rest of the way? Also, Russell is not a very strategic player – he’s more upfront with his game as was seen in his previous run in Survivor.

Survivor Philippines Episode 4 seems to be the make or break stage for Matsing. If they can pull off a win, it will be big. But what’s more exciting is, if Matsing doesn’t make a return trip to tribal this coming episode, which tribe will?

What are your bold predictions for this new episode? Don’t forget to share your comments and/or violent reactions in the comments section below.


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  2. Kalabaw:

    As I see it, Jeff got the bigger advantage for letting Jonathan think he's on his side. That's smart of him!


    I can see Lisa as the swing vote and I hope she'll choose to be with Abi-Maria and Pete.


    Denise and Malcolm might regret that they voted out Angie.


Thanks for your comment. Looking forward to hearing what you have to say! :)