Monday, September 16, 2013

Survivor Blood vs Water: My Pre-Show Picks

The 27th season of Survivor is set to premiere this week and fans are excited to witness one of the craziest twists that the game has had since the racial tribal split in Cook Islands. This means that it is also time to make my picks on who I think has the best chance to win the season. It was a difficult choice for me having to pick who I thought would have the best chances to win, particularly in the Returning Players side.

Returning Castaways

Tyson Apostol

Who doesn't love Tyson? He is goofy and does not take himself seriously. It's rare to find a personality in the show like this and Tyson is definitely a gem. Having said that, I pick Tyson mainly for the entertainment value he offers. But that does not mean he is not capable to win this game, either. He is physically up to par with the best competitors out there, especially in this batch of castaways. He is also right to point out that he is in the middle of the pack in terms of the age and athletic ability. Thus, he will not be singled out for being a huge physical threat right off the bat nor will he be on the outs socially.

The biggest challenge for Tyson in this season is his ability to maintain his focus in the game. We saw him make one of the worst moves in Survivor history last time he played, which got himself voted off by his own doing. If only he can be more calculated about what moves to make and when to make them, I think he has a pretty decent shot.

Aras Baskauskas

I am not full-on riding on the idea that Aras can win this game for a second time. I could be wrong. I thought the same of Sandra, too, in Heroes vs Villains. But then again, Aras and Sandra are two different types of winners. Aras is perceived more as a physical and strategic threat whereas Sandra likes to orchestrate behind people's backs. If Aras can strike before he can be struck at, he might be in good shape.  

Loved Ones

Katie, Tina's Daughter

I don't know why I picked Katie - I simply have a good vibe about her. She is charming, lovely, and seems pleasant to be around. These characteristics are going to help her in the social aspect of Survivor because she is definitely going to be fun to hang with. Katie also appears to love the outdoors, as I've seen in her CBS bio, so the elements might not be that much of a big deal for her.

The strategic side is the biggest question mark. When her mother, Tina, played and won Survivor, the strategic game wasn't as cutthroat as it is now. I am doubting her ability to go there if needed to - of course, they would say they would do anything. I could be wrong. But I have good vibes towards Katie so I am counting on her to pull through.

Vytas, Aras' Brother

I am picking Vytas to win because I believe that Aras is going to have a bigger target on his back simply for being a former winner. Not that I don't think Aras won't do good or go far, but the target is going to be there. Vytas appears to have the same personality as Aras is, plus they are both athletic and sociable.

My initial perception of Vytas is that he is smart and is able to read people and situations around him really well. In their pre-show interview, both he and Aras noted adaptability as going to be a crucial aspect of their individual games and I don't see Vytas having problem with that. He is going to be well liked by both male and female castaways on his tribe, plus he is going to be a force in challenges, too. In addition to his athleticism, Vytas also practices yoga (as with Aras) and that is going to help him channel his energies where they need to be and maintain proper mental focus in a game that is more mental than physical. It'll be interesting to see how far he goes or if he can go all the way.

Caleb, Colton's Fiance

I cannot believe that I would pick someone that has some sort of association with Colton, probably one of the most hated player in Survivor history. But Caleb is a wildcard pick for me. He has enough likability that I think people will overcome the fact that he's Colton's fiance to want to be around him, and that he is going to be a lot of use around camp. I don't think that Colton has any chance at all to win this game so having him around is also going to help Caleb's game because much of the animosity is going to be focused towards Colton.

The strategic part of Caleb's game is going to be the biggest question mark, though. This is when he might be able to use Colton to his advantage because he appears to be a highly grounded person to me that I don't think he will be as cunning or manipulative as Colton can be. One thing that might work against Caleb is if and when he proves to be likeable, he might be perceived as a threat to win and if the other castaways catch up to that, he will be in big trouble.

Who I Think Has No Chance to Win

Rupert - A lot of people might hate me for this, but even Jeff won't deny in the TV Guide Network special that he does not believe Rupert can win again (even in his fourth run). It's a different scenario with Boston Rob wherein he became more strategic and sharper as a player with every stint. With Rupert, it seems to work in reverse. His poor performance at the Heroes vs Villains was dismal, to say the least. I don't even get why they even invited him back because I thought for sure he's done with Survivor.

Colton - Duh.

Kat - She's fun and bubbly, but unfortunately these aren't characteristics that merit a win in this game. Even when she does improve her game from last time, I am not sure if she can convince a jury to respect her game.

What did you think of my picks? Let's compare notes by sharing your picks in the comments section.


  1. I think Vytas has a big chance in winning also, I also think Tyson's girlfriend is a big chance as well as going deep, probably further than Tyson.
    I totally agree about Colton, he may not last til the merge and Rupert will never ever win and his wife I can see her being an early boot.
    I hope Laura and daughter Ciera go far but the latter I am not sure of.Time will tell I guess.

  2. Kat nor her boyfriend have a chance..

    Vytas and Caleb have the best chance. In my opinion.

    If I were on the show, i'd be voting out people, based on their loved one. No need to let certain people make it to the merge.

  3. Hi Abby, my #1 pre-show picks to stay longer or win is Aras. Are you surprised, lol?


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